Malaysia Airlines crash :: Thread

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Yorkieabroad

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Yorkieabroad Posted on 09 Mar 2014, 16:56

But 2 stolen from different nationalities turning up on the passenger manifest of a plane that appears to have fallen out of the sky...what are the chances of that.....

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The4BellsLondon

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The4BellsLondon Posted on 09 Mar 2014, 16:57

Possibly 4 with false passports now plus maybe a door has been found in the sea!

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moneypenny20

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moneypenny20 Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 00:00

I'd say there was a good probability of there being a stolen passport on a random flight between countries where visas are not required and border security not top notch regardless of whether the plane lands intentionally or otherwise.

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Dorothy

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Dorothy Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 16:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yorkieabroad

But 2 stolen from different nationalities turning up on the passenger manifest of a plane that appears to have fallen out of the sky...what are the chances of that.....

Probably pretty good. Like Pulaski says, stolen passports are stolen for a reason - to be used.

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Yorkieabroad

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Yorkieabroad Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 16:58

Of course they are stolen to be used

Do you mean that there's a pretty good probability that there are a couple of stolen passports on any plane that crashes, or that if there are a couple and the plane crashes that there's a pretty good chance the 2 are connected?

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Pulaski

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Pulaski Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 16:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dorothy

Probably pretty good. Like Pulaski says, stolen passports are stolen for a reason - to be used.

Well an Air India plane that had flown out of Dubai, came down in Mangalore in 2010, killed 158 people, and it was reported that among the dead there were TEN people travelling on stolen passports, so you could argue that 2/227 is a suspiciously LOW number.

Quote:

Originally Posted by moneypenny20

I'd say there was a good probability of there being a stolen passport on a random flight between countries where visas are not required and border security not top notch regardless of whether the plane lands intentionally or otherwise.

I disagree.

..... To pull a number out of thin air, I'd guess that a flight from a country that doesn't scrub passenger lists for possible stolen passports, that a minimum of 1%-2% of passengers are using stolen passports, which would mean 1-2 on smaller aircraft up to 4-8 on larger aircraft. Obviously the Air India flight above had rather more than that at 6.3%.

...... I agree that the number of passengers travelling on stolen passports has likely little to do with the success of the flight in arriving in one piece at its destination.

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Yorkieabroad

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Yorkieabroad Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 17:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by moneypenny20

I'd say there was a good probability of there being a stolen passport on a random flight between countries where visas are not required and border security not top notch regardless of whether the plane lands intentionally or otherwise.

Good probability being what, better than say, 50%? How many flights a day...say 100,000, ballpark? So 50,000 stolen passports are being used today, and tomorrow, and the next day....? Sounds like a lot .... No wonder the guy from Interpol is ticked that no one is checking his database... And if it is so prevalent, I wonder why no one is going for the easy catch....after all, the crook is effectively presenting him/herself red-handed.

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Pulaski

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Pulaski Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 17:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yorkieabroad

Good probability being what, better than say, 50%? How many flights a day...say 100,000, ballpark? So 50,000 stolen passports are being used today, and tomorrow, and the next day....? Sounds like a lot .... No wonder the guy from Interpol is ticked that no one is checking his database... And if it is so prevalent, I wonder why no one is going for the easy catch....after all, the crook is effectively presenting him/herself red-handed.

Ask.com is saying 50,000 international flights/day. I think you may be overlooking the number of people in the world. There are 7Bn people, and if only 1% of them have passports that is 70 million passports, then if 1% of them are stolen each year, that is 700,000 stolen passports; with an average unexpired life at the time if theft of five years, that would mean 3million unexpired stolen passports in circulation.

I have no idea if 1% are stolen, but I'd guess that rather more than 1% of people have passports, and could easily be 10%.

Now suppose that half all flights originate in countries that check for stolen passports, that would mean 9.125million flights/year are not screened. Now if the average stolen passport is used for 2 return trips/yr (4 flights), using my guess of 3million stolen passports in circulation, that is 14million passport-flights/yr, or approximately 1 passports/ flight.

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Dorothy

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Dorothy Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 17:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yorkieabroad

Of course they are stolen to be used

Do you mean that there's a pretty good probability that there are a couple of stolen passports on any plane that crashes, or that if there are a couple and the plane crashes that there's a pretty good chance the 2 are connected?

I think it's a pretty good probability that there are a couple of stolen passports on pretty much every international flight, whether it crashes or not.

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Yorkieabroad

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Yorkieabroad Posted on 10 Mar 2014, 17:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pulaski

Ask.com is saying 50,000 international flights/day. I think you may be overlooking the number of people in the world. There are 7Bn people, and if only 1% of them have passports that is 70 million passports, then if 1% of them are stolen each year, that is 700,000 stolen passports; with an average unexpired life at the time if theft of five years, that would mean 3million unexpired stolen passports in circulation.

I have no idea if 1% are stolen, but I'd guess that rather more than 1% of people have passports, and could easily be 10%.

Now suppose that half all flights originate in countries that check for stolen passports, that would mean 9.125million flights/year are not screened. Now if the average stolen passport is used for 2 return trips/yr (4 flights), using my guess of 3million stolen passports in circulation, that is 14million passport-flights/yr, or approximately 1 passports/ flight.

No, I've got a reasonable handle on world population....but of that 7bn you can cross off best part of a billion Chinese who aren't allowed to get a passport, another similar number of Indian sub cont who can't afford one, no idea about the population of Africa that can't afford one, huge percentage of Americans who don't want one etc etc. What I can't get my head around is the number of stolen passports being mooted as in use on a daily basis. In the space of a few posts we've gone from a reasonable probability to near certainty, from one on every flight to 10% etc etc. All I think it shows is that none of us really know, and are grasping at numbers....that we're relying on ask.com (yes, I went there too

) for "statistics" has to show something....

I wonder if anyone like Lansbury maybe can shed some light on how big a problem it is, and why it appears (from Interpols frustration) that not many people seem to be doing anything about it.

But going back to the original point of this, when a plane with a good track record, being flown in good weather by an experienced aircrew from an airline with a decent safety record suddenly disappears, surely having a couple of unknown passengers of board with one way tickets has to pique at least some interest from the investigators...

Malaysia Airlines crash

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